The Dangers Of Forecasting On Wall Street, Seen Through A Few Sentences | Exploring Markets

The Dangers Of Forecasting On Wall Street, Seen Through A Few Sentences

We just read a great blog post from Robert Seawright.

He touches up on the subject of experts and forecasters on Wall Street. We just love it. Forecasting is a dangerous game, and the experts are wrong all of the time:
Market forecasting has a long and ignominious history. Irving Fisher was a noted 20th century economist. No less an authority than Milton Friedman called him “the greatest economist the United States has ever produced.” But just three days before the famous 1929 Wall Street crash (timing is everything) he claimed that “stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Similarly, on March 6, 2009, Michael Boskin argued that “Obama’s Radicalism Is Killing the Dow.” Stocks bottomed just three days after publication (timing is everything) and the Dow has gained over 171 percent since, through the end of 2014.